THE ILLUSION OF REGIONAL SELF-RELIANCE: A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE CARRYING CAPACITY GAP ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TRANSMIGRATION SETTLEMENTS IN ACEH

Abstract

The policy of organizing transmigration settlements in the Samar Kilang area, Aceh Province, faces a planning paradox. On one hand, the program targets the placement of 940 families to reduce Aceh's Open Unemployment Rate, which stands at 5.88 percent. On the other hand, the conventional policy ignores the absolute deficit of regional carrying capacity, characterized by the complete absence of physical markets, the digital isolation of 13 villages (blank spots), inadequate emergency medical facilities, and the marginal status (S3) of agricultural lands. This Policy Paper aims to critically evaluate and redesign the policy to prevent an "illusion of independence," which strongly risks triggering a surge in disguised unemployment and creating new pockets of extreme poverty.

Employing a qualitative case study approach with in-depth interviews of 50 key informants, SWOT matrix analysis, and William N. Dunn's evaluation criteria, this study proves that fulfilling physical targets without a market ecosystem poses severe sociological risks. As a solution, this paper recommends a defensive-curative intervention in the form of a placement moratorium mandated by a Governor's Decree. This suspension must be accompanied by the establishment of a Cross-Sectoral Task Force to prioritize the fulfillment of economic infrastructure prerequisites and fundamental human rights prior to demographic mobilization.

Keywords: Transmigration, Illusion of Independence, Disguised Unemployment, Moratorium, Samar Kilang.